2020 Presidential Predictions Part II

I already stated that I think Trump is going to win the election based on how I feel the American populace is currently leaning. But I also sat down and looked at how the elections have progressed for presidents running for a second term. So, I feel have a reasonable guess for how each state will turn out as far as the popular vote, but I think it would be more interesting to go through what I think election night will look like. Again, these predictions are based on my understanding of the average American mixed with my quick and simple analysis of past elections.

Initially they will tell us that the battleground states are

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Iowa

Maine’s second District

Michigan

North Carolina

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Texas

And Wisconsin

In this scenario they will have Biden with 232 votes and Trump with 126 making it a rough road for Trump. Seeing how states often vote with each other they will put Biden a 97% chance of winning and expect him to end the night with 352 electoral votes to Trumps 186.

7:00 PM EDT

Following states polls close.

Georgia

Indiana

Kentucky

South Carolina

Vermont

Virginia

The initial results and exit polls will be closer than expected and they will only end up calling 3 states initially. The inability to call Vermont will concern many people.

Indiana – Trump

Kentucky – Trump

South Carolina – Trump

Current odds

Biden by 98%

Trump 186 to Bidens 352

Trump 28

Biden 0

7:30 PM EDT

States closing

North Carolina

Ohio

West Virginia

They call West Virginia for Trump

Current odds

Biden by 98%

Trump 186 to Bidens 352

Trump 33

Biden 0

8:00PM EDT

States closing

Alabama

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Illinois

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Mississippi

Missouri

New Hampshire

New Jersey

Oklahoma

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Tennessee

Washington D.C.

They call some expect states at this point

In the Trump column goes

Alabama

Mississippi

Missouri

Oklahoma

Tennessee

In the Biden column goes

Massachusetts

Vermont

Washington D.C.

But before the 8:30 PM results come out they let out the first surprise of the night. Georgia looks to be going Trump.

Current odds

Biden by 98%

Trump 188 to Bidens 350

Trump 92

Biden 17

8:30PM EDT

States closing

Arkansas

Again, they will come out that the polls are closer than expected and only call a few states.

Trump gets

Arkansas

Maine’s second district

Biden gets

Illinois

Maine’s first district

Maryland

Current odds

Biden by 96%

Trump 198 to Bidens 340

Trump 99

Biden 48

9:00 PM EDT

States closing

Arizona

Colorado

Kansas

Louisiana

Michigan

Minnesota

Nebraska

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

South Dakota

Texas

Wisconsin

Wyoming

They will quickly come to the conclusion that Pennsylvania and Texas are too close to call, but many states will start to turn colors now. Things will start to look much more likely in Trumps favor, but without Texas they will be saying Biden is going to have a huge win still.

Trump

Kansas

Louisiana

Nebraska

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wyoming

Biden

New York

Current odds

Biden by 57%

Trump 257 to Bidens 281

Trump 127

Biden 77

9:30PM EDT

No states close

They will start out announcing wins for Biden, but many battleground states will start to become too far apart, and they will have to start calling some for Trump. The tide turns and the talk of mail in ballots becomes very prevalent.

Trump

Arizona – a battleground win

Maine overall – a shock

North Carolina – a battleground win

Ohio – a battleground win

Biden

Connecticut

New Jersey

Trump 173

Biden 98

Current odds

Trump by 90%

Trump 303 to Bidens 235

10:00 PM EDT

Polls Closing

Iowa

Montana

Nevada

Utah

Things turn bleak for Biden as they call Texas for Trump. The conversation starts to turn paths left for Biden and he needs to nearly sweep the rest of the battlegrounds. He can lose either Iowa or Wisconsin, but not both.

Trump

Montana

Texas – a battleground win

Utah

Current odds

Trump by 96%

Trump 320 to Bidens 218

Trump 220

Biden 98

10:30 PM EDT

No polls close

They will call Delaware finally, but Michigan and Florida will also be too far apart to not call. The talk will turn to mail in votes being counted later and not knowing the real winner tonight, but it is obvious Trump looks unbeatable at this point.

Trump

Florida – a battleground win

Michigan – a battleground win

Biden

Delaware

Current odds

Trump by 99%

Trump 329 to Bidens 209

Trump 265

Biden 101

11:00PM EDT

Polls closing

California

Hawaii

Idaho

Oregon

Washington

Some of the channels start to call the election for Trump while others stick to the mail in voting possibilities.

Trump States

Idaho

Iowa – a battleground win

Biden States

California

Hawaii

Oregon

Washington

Current odds

Trump by 99%

Trump 329 to Bidens 209

Trump 275

Biden 179

11:30 PM EDT

No polls closing

Still holding hope as Trump hasn’t quite run away with it.

Biden

Colorado

Nevada

Current odds

Trump by 99%

Trump 316 to Bidens 222

Trump 275

Biden 194

Midnight EDT

This is where things really fall apart. States that were too close to call start to fall to Trump and states that could change the outcome with mail in votes become too far spread for it to matter.

Trump

Minnesota – a shock

New Hampshire – a shock

Pennsylvania – a battleground win

Virginia – a shock

Current odds

Trump by 100%

Trump 323 to Bidens 215

Trump 322

Biden 194

12:30 AM EDT

Wisconsin called for Trump another battleground win

1:00 AM EDT

Alaska closes and goes Trump

1:30 AM EDT

They finally call Rhode Island for Biden in a very close race

New Mexico is called the next day for Biden in the closest popular vote over the night

Trump 335 and 51.03% of the popular vote

Biden 203 and 46.32% of the popular vote